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October 19, 2007
Stock market is falling down…..!
I don’t have enough evidence to prove my point here. And my friend and myself have kept the history button on Yahoo Messenger unhighlighted. So any evidence of the chat we had on the day Stock Market reached 19000 is unattainable. He was chatting about how India has developed so fast and how it was visible looking at the points Sensex had touched - 19000! I said don’t worry it will fall soon, and when it will fall it will be horror – to the extent that people will start committing suicides! (Well that was a strong statement, but then very much possible!) And the very next day the market fell 200 points, and is still falling!
My sister is quite good in understanding the Sensex trend, and she has been following the market since it was 6000 points 2 years back. It was that time when P Chidambaram had said – if the market touches 8000 points – it will be a matter of concern! And it touched 19000 in 2 years, and there was no intervention.
She had a casual meeting with one of the leading stockbrokers of Chennai the same morning the Sensex fell. She could see a panic on his face, and she asked what is wrong, and he said the market would fall today drastically. And it did. He had some very valid points to add –
Q1) Why is there a major growth in the stock market?
His Answer - Because previously only experienced people got into stock, these days all who have money and don’t know what to do with it invest in the stock market. Also previously it was 80 per cent genuine money and 20 per cent non-genuine. And today 80 per cent is non-genuine money.
Q2) Why don’t the concerned people get involved to clear the confusion?
His Answer – everyone has a price, and everyone is buyable. So the concerned people are bought to keep their mouth shut
Q3) Why do people on media keep saying that it will keep going up?
His Answer – if they say otherwise, he will be tagged an unconfident person. So whoever talks to the media always gives a positive trend about the market, which need not be true in reality
On top of that another astrologer friend of mine called me a month back saying the Stock market will fall drastically towards the end of October 2007.
So what is my take on the topic? Anything that grows very fast comes down at the same speed – that is the rule of life - and any growth should always be gradual. The DOT COM industry came down, because it grew too fast in too little time. Now it is stabilized. Same way Sensex touching 19000 is too fast in 2 years, and it will come down drastically and stabilize at 10000 to 12000 points.
A special advise for people who love to make easy money.
*Money that comes through hard efforts remains longer than that which comes easy
*Never make stock market the only source of income, except if you are a stockbroker
*Putting money in stock market is gambling, though people will argue it is an investment. So gamble to lose. If you win, you are lucky
*And as Thiruvalluvar says – Winning at gambling is like a fish getting caught in the hook thinking it has got the worm
*If you put a mental calculation about how much you invested and how much got in return through stock market in life – you will see that more or less the profit and loss gets equaled
Posted by Kenni at October 19, 2007 11:42 AM
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